Research on the Governance of “Non-grain” of Cultivated Land in China: Effective Evaluation, Mechanism Analysis, Practical Challenge and Optimization Pathway

Objective The aims were to explore the effects of the governance of "non-grainizaiton" of arable land, including the mechanisms of formation, the challenges and the optimization paths, which could provide a scientific basis for the formulation of relevant policies and a new theoretical foundation and research ideas for the study of "non-grainization" of arable land.

Method Using the methods of public policy analysis, econometric analysis and institutional economics, the driving forces and governance paths for the "non-grainization" of arable land were conducted in-depth analysis.

Result The policy on controlling the "non-grainization" of cultivated land has a significant inhibitory effect, with the policy intensity variable being significantly negative at the 1% level. Counterfactual calculations showed that the implementation of the policy in 2021 and 2023 reduced the national "non-grainization" rate by 0.3% and 0.24%, equivalent to effectively protecting approximately 50.61 × 10⁴ hm² and 41.19 × 10⁴ hm² of grain sown area, indicating significant policy effectiveness. "Non-grainization" was the result of multiple "benefit-cost" factors, including economic benefits, ecological benefits, policy orientation, and cultivated land site conditions, and was driven by variable factors, such as economic level, population mobility and technological progress. Current governance faces a four-dimensional dilemma of "legal system-market mechanism-social culture-technical support", including challenges such as legislative deficiencies and fragmented supervision, low comparative returns of grain farming, weakened willingness of farmers to plant and intergenerational inheritance, and bottlenecks in dynamic monitoring and restoration technology.

Conclusion This study concludes that a single administrative control model is difficult to fundamentally reverse the trend of "non-grainization", and there is an urgent need to promote the transformation of governance paradigm from "command-control" to "incentive-co-governance". Accordingly, a collaborative governance framework centered on "institutional design-economic regulation-social collaboration-technology empowerment" is constructed, and the specific optimization paths are proposed to achieve precision and sustainability of the farmland protection system.