Objective The aims were to explore the spatiotemporal evolution law of ecosystem service value (ESV) in Anhui Province and to provide a scientific reference for regional protection and high-quality economic development.

Methods Taking Anhui Province as the research object, based on land use data (2000 - 2020) and relevant socioeconomic datasets, the equivalent factor method and PLUS model were employed to conduct multi-scenario simulations for land use changes and ESV evolutionary trends in the study area by 2035.

Results The total area of land use change in Anhui Province reached 705,000 hectares during 2000 - 2020. Cultivated land and forest land transferred out were the largest, while construction land and water area were the main types transferred in. The overall ecosystem service value (ESV) of Anhui Province showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 2.944 billion yuan. Forest land and water areas are the main contributing factors. The ESV in southern Anhui remains generally stable. In central Anhui, it first increased and then decreased. While in northern Anhui, the variation in ESV was minimal. Spatially, it presented a pattern of "higher in the south and lower in the north". The highest values were observed in southern Anhui, followed by central Anhui, with the lowest values in northern Anhui. Under four scenarios (natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection), the predicted ESV in 2035 was 734.427 billion yuan, 733.725 billion yuan, 736.687 billion yuan, and 733.657 billion yuan, respectively. Compared with the 2020 ESV (735.067 billion yuan), ESV decreased under the economic development, natural development, and cultivated land protection scenarios, while only the ecological protection scenario yielded an increase.

Conclusion Ecological protection constitutes the core approach to promoting ESV. Economic development and cultivated land protection policies lacking ecological synergy will lead to the loss of ecological value. Therefore, a collaborative management model with multiple objectives of "ecology-economy-cultivated land" should be established to promote sustainable development. Regions with high ESV, such as the Chaohu Lake Basin, the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, and the southern Anhui region, should implement the most stringent ecological protection measures for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of the regional ecology, economy, and society.